Comments for If this is the deal, hold onto your hats investors... at http://www.urbanelephant.com , comment 1 to 19 out of 19 comments http://www.urbanelephant.com Thu, 09 Sep 2010 12:07:39 +0100 FeedCreator 1.7.3 http://www.urbanelephant.com/index.php/home/64/194-if-this-is-the-deal-hold-onto-your-hats-investors.html#comment-6776 you can't print your way out of an economic contraction, especially when the rest of the world isn't doing the same. As the Euro crashes, the Dollar rises, but this will be devastating in the long run for America. Inflation (AKA: a devalued dollar) is on the way no matter what because we're printing money and issuing massive amounts of public debt. the combination of a rising dollar, relative to other currencies, and inflation in America will create the "stagflated" economic situation we all had been hoping to avoid... - Jay Golub Sat, 06 Feb 2010 04:19:00 +0100 http://www.urbanelephant.com/index.php/home/64/194-if-this-is-the-deal-hold-onto-your-hats-investors.html#comment-4294 http://www.cnbc.com/id/31482098 Dr. "Doom" agrees with me and the market's 200+ dip is just the beginning of this summer swoon. HOLD ONTO YOUR HATS....! I just wonder how long it will take for Obama to start to get the blame for this accelerated downturn. It's important to note that the "stimulus" package they touted so proudly has not only been un-implemented, but even where the funds are being spent, the economic future looks bleak... - Jay Golub Mon, 22 Jun 2009 11:03:45 +0100 http://www.urbanelephant.com/index.php/home/64/194-if-this-is-the-deal-hold-onto-your-hats-investors.html#comment-4283 things seem real "toppy" again. There is little real good news out there. The consumer has shut down and any amounts of extra-income are going right into the bank. companies have stayed profitable by increasing productivity, which isn't stimulative to the economy at all. unemployment is continuing to rise. And lastly, government hasn't understood the lesson that it is time to reign in spending. The Democratic leadership in NY State used the temporary "stimulus" funds directed to us by the Feds to fund year over year increases in government spending - this facing more than $40 billion in projected budget gaps for the next few years. NY State and City have overspent. The average middle-class resident of NYC can't afford the existing tax burden. If the City increases sales taxes and property taxes, if they increase fines and fees for government services, they are going to scare more long-time New Yorkers to relocate outside our borders. We are destroying our communities with wasteful and reckless government spending. It is time to give the taxpayers a break and truly find ways of doing more with less. Because government hasn't reigned in its spending habits, the leverage that created the credit bubble has just moved from our housing and consumer credit markets to government balance sheets. Until that leverage fully or in large part gets washed through the system, the economy can not recover... - Jay Golub Thu, 18 Jun 2009 17:50:09 +0100 http://www.urbanelephant.com/index.php/home/64/194-if-this-is-the-deal-hold-onto-your-hats-investors.html#comment-2965 http://www.cnbc.com/id/27012699 I am still shocked that in October of 2008 the Dow Jones Industrial Average was over 10,000. At 6627, the Dow is down 36% from that point when the Democratic Congress started tinkering with the "bailout" plan. The fact that Obama's proposals have been equally as damaging to the sentiment and prospects on Wall Street only makes matter much worse... - Jay Golub Sat, 07 Mar 2009 16:33:31 +0100 http://www.urbanelephant.com/index.php/home/64/194-if-this-is-the-deal-hold-onto-your-hats-investors.html#comment-2626 If Obama, Pelosi and Reed keep this up, we'll be in the Great Depression all over again. Obama's inability to build any sense of confidence in the market is starting to create a huge problem - one that, although not totally fixed by any standard, was stablized by Bush/Paulson. The adminstration is now saying it will be WEEKS until they have a housing/bank bailout plan. This is not what the markets need to hear. And for those of you on "main street" - a term ridiculously used by the Left as a point of debate, understand that YOU will suffer the most from the waffling and bad choices already being made by Democratic leadership - if you can call it that.... - Jay Golub Tue, 17 Feb 2009 05:24:26 +0100 http://www.urbanelephant.com/index.php/home/64/194-if-this-is-the-deal-hold-onto-your-hats-investors.html#comment-1312 http://www.cnbc.com/id/28115624 "After three months, nearly 36 percent of the borrowers had re-defaulted by being more than 30 days past due. After six months, the rate was nearly 53 percent, and after eight months, 58 percent.” As predicted in this thread, the 'bailout" isn't working to stabilize the credit market enough to allow consumer and mortgage credit markets to make a turn-around. by not allowing Paulson et al to have a blank check to be used to simply purchase assets, the loans and injections of liquidity are just not working. Sadly, the Fed's will be back at this again next year and i hope they do it right next time, which will be where the Fed's directly purchase these bad debts to get them completely off the balance sheets of these banks and financial institutions... - Jay Golub Mon, 08 Dec 2008 10:48:54 +0100 http://www.urbanelephant.com/index.php/home/64/194-if-this-is-the-deal-hold-onto-your-hats-investors.html#comment-521 http://www.nypost.com/seven/10112008/news/nationalnews/crude_inks_amid_fear_133107.htm I think this report is also wrong. Oil sold off yesterday, not essentially because of demand issues, but because people needed to raise cash levels to balance out the cost of their debts and to raise cash to pay for mutual fund redemptions. As people sell out of mutual funds, fund managers need to raise cash. They can do this by selling stocks, but when stocks are so low in value, it is better to sell those things that have performed much better over recent days and weeks. It was redemptions that led to this sell-off in oil - and all the other major commodities as well. The media spreads misinformation sometimes and saying that oil sold off "amid fear of a worldwide recession and further signs of slumping energy demand" is just a DANGEROUSLY wrong thing for the Post to do... - Jay Golub Sat, 11 Oct 2008 03:16:07 +0100 http://www.urbanelephant.com/index.php/home/64/194-if-this-is-the-deal-hold-onto-your-hats-investors.html#comment-520 http://www.nypost.com/seven/10112008/news/nationalnews/g7_vows_to_melt_deep_freeze_133100.htm again, governments around the world are jointly working to scare more people out of the markets. Will this sure up the bank to bank loans? Possibly, but there is little reason for the banks to not be doing this right now. It doesn't seem to me that banks aren't lending because they are unsure whether or not they will get paid back by another bank. They are not lending because they don't know if they will need the capital themselves in the near-term. All the banks need to hold onto their cash right now to sure up their assets enough to overcome continued price reductions in all asset classes around the world. These leaders should just go on vacation or something. The more they talk, the more money they promise, the faster the roller coaster ride goes down... - Jay Golub Sat, 11 Oct 2008 03:08:08 +0100 http://www.urbanelephant.com/index.php/home/64/194-if-this-is-the-deal-hold-onto-your-hats-investors.html#comment-501 seems that the more the government gets involved, the stock market goes lower. They need to stop. In the coverage of the markets today, a reporter - i don't remember which network - said, "every time someone from the government comes out to speak to calm things down or announce a plan, as soon as they are done speaking the markets tank. I wish they'd just shut up already." I couldn't agree more... - Jay Golub Thu, 09 Oct 2008 18:13:56 +0100 http://www.urbanelephant.com/index.php/home/64/194-if-this-is-the-deal-hold-onto-your-hats-investors.html#comment-487 unfortunately, people are too often buying the false argument that McCain = Bush and that Bush and the GOP are to blame for everything. this is a difficult obstacle to get past at this point. McCain desperately needs to express a different view of this "crisis" and it's root causes tonight in the debate. This may be his last chance to change the momentum on this thing. McCain was gaining widely before the crisis took hold. It's up to him to point out some of the points made here a UE if he wants to win this election and save us from an Obama Presidency... - Jay Golub Tue, 07 Oct 2008 05:38:12 +0100 http://www.urbanelephant.com/index.php/home/64/194-if-this-is-the-deal-hold-onto-your-hats-investors.html#comment-486 which took root under the Clinton administration with Clinton and ANDREW CUOMO insisting that people of little or no means be allowed to obtain high risk mortgages (and that is a tautology). This is predominantly a Democratic party created problem. And yes, Maxine Waters' fingerprints are in this also. - alice Lemos Tue, 07 Oct 2008 03:51:50 +0100 http://www.urbanelephant.com/index.php/home/64/194-if-this-is-the-deal-hold-onto-your-hats-investors.html#comment-485 interview with Bill O'Reilly in which the tape is rolled of his terlling the audience that "Fannie and Freddy are essentially sound"!!!!!!!! Frank and Chris Dodd, who received a sweetheart deal from Country Wide, are part of the problem. They should both be tossed out/indicted and right now Dodd is being investigated. Frank must go: I would not let him manage a popsicle stand. - alice Lemos Tue, 07 Oct 2008 03:49:54 +0100 http://www.urbanelephant.com/index.php/home/64/194-if-this-is-the-deal-hold-onto-your-hats-investors.html#comment-482 Barney Frank has, whether we like it or not, been a constructive factor in this crisis. Unlike Pelosi, he's made the environment less partisan and has worked dilligently to help America avoid a full-scale depression. On the other hand, Democrats in Congress have much blame to take - especially those in the Senate who were so in favor or almost every aspect of banking deregulation and the forced offering of mortgages to those who are in default today. Chuch Schumer is the poster-child for those sentiments. This crisis is functionally NON-PARTISAN. Both sides deserve blame. But just like the Iraq War, it is IRRELEVANT who is blame for how we got to where we are. What the country needs are answers for the future. The Democrats, like with the Iraq War, have no solutions - they only offer villians for the public to scapegoat. The hearing today where the CEO of Lehman was basically forced to appologize for how much money they made in the past are a perfect example of what is wrong with the Democrats. If the GOP had just been as financially and fiscally conservative as it has historically been, the GOP would be in a great position to capitalize on the Democrat's demagoguery. Unfortunately, our side has been reckless and has no leg to stand on in this regard. But being forward thinking, it's time for the GOP to get back to it's traditional roots and argue for transparency in financial markets and lower, less wasteful spending out of DC... - Jay Golub Mon, 06 Oct 2008 13:37:29 +0100 http://www.urbanelephant.com/index.php/home/64/194-if-this-is-the-deal-hold-onto-your-hats-investors.html#comment-481 possibility of the Demos picking up my seats! nobody seems to want to connect them to our credit crisis - they are getting a pass! Barney Frank should be thrown out of office. - alice Lemos Mon, 06 Oct 2008 12:28:17 +0100 http://www.urbanelephant.com/index.php/home/64/194-if-this-is-the-deal-hold-onto-your-hats-investors.html#comment-480 the Dow is now down 815 points since the passage of the "bailout" bill. This is a failed plan as it doesn't directly and, more importantly, quickly deal with the problems of the credit markets. Dow 8000 here we come... - Jay Golub Mon, 06 Oct 2008 12:26:08 +0100 http://www.urbanelephant.com/index.php/home/64/194-if-this-is-the-deal-hold-onto-your-hats-investors.html#comment-471 http://www.cnbc.com/id/27012699 "The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq had their worst week since September 2001, and the Dow had its worst week since July 2002." The Dow was down 7.3% this week alone - or 815 points - and this WITH passage of the rescue plan by Congress. Some were arguing that the Dow dropped so badly on Monday because the plan didn't pass, and although this may be partially true, the real reason for the selloff on Monday and the overall terrible week on Wall Street was that the markets recognized that the rescue plan is not the solution to our central problems. The reconstructed plan will not address the credit market difficulties that have persisted for the last few weeks and will not address ANY problem quickly enough to stop the upcoming economic recession and/or the perception that the economy is tanking. The most important place to look for the potential success or failure of this plan is to the credit markets, which have never been worse. Small and large businesses alike cannot get capital to continue or to expand business activity. although i'm not ready to predict a similar week this upcoming week, i'd still keep a tight grip on my cap this week. Recession is inevitable now. How long it will last is the next question for the country... - Jay Golub Sat, 04 Oct 2008 02:42:34 +0100 http://www.urbanelephant.com/index.php/home/64/194-if-this-is-the-deal-hold-onto-your-hats-investors.html#comment-452 Bruce Layman, write-in candidate for the 22nd Congressional District stated, “I would have voted against the bailout bill before Congress because it does not protect the taxpayers and there is no plan to recoup tax payer’s dollars. There was no effective oversight and accountability built into the plan; to have the heads of HUD, SEC and the Secretary of the Treasury, as the overseers, they got us here in the first place. Remember we were all told this in 2004, this was ripe for imploding. The bailout still allows the Wall Street executives to continue to make millions while taxpayers foot the bill. This plan was rejected because Paulson was protecting his cronies and Pelosi called Republicans “unpatriotic” and even her own Democrats rejected her, time for her to go too. Congress must break its miserable record of failure and make responsible decisions that Americans deserve. We need to look for a real plan that will make the markets function in the way that they should, not reward bad behavior, and we should prosecute those have milked the system. Congress needs to stay in Washington and work toward a better solution. It’s time we end the contentious gridlock that is hurting our country and work to reach a consensus that will bolster our economy, but not burden working class and middle class families with additional taxes. We need Congress to create a fair plan which protects retirees, homeowners, and small businesses.” - Sword of Truth Tue, 30 Sep 2008 10:58:55 +0100 http://www.urbanelephant.com/index.php/home/64/194-if-this-is-the-deal-hold-onto-your-hats-investors.html#comment-445 It seems at this point the Dem's will end up having to pass a "bailout" bill that is much more to the Left's liking. There is little reason for the GOP to compromise at this point and Pelosi can't allow her majority's failure to act lead to the economic calamity of our generation. In many ways, this benefits McCain and the GOP because if the plan doesn't stop the problems in the stock and credit markets, the Dem's can be blamed for not passing a more moderate or conservative solution to the problem. Pelosi is truly the gift that just keeps on giving... - Jay Golub Tue, 30 Sep 2008 05:30:19 +0100 http://www.urbanelephant.com/index.php/home/64/194-if-this-is-the-deal-hold-onto-your-hats-investors.html#comment-442 MORONS!!! Pelosi deserves every bit of criticism she gets for failing to get this done. She has more than enough votes to do this in her conference WITHOUT GOP support. To blame the GOP is wrong. Honestly, one needs to look no further than the 2006 pledge by Democrats in Congress to "end the Iraq war." The fact that they not only didn't pass legislation to end the war, they never ever proposed a bill to that end MORE THAN 2 YEARS after they took control of the House. I'm just barely holding on tight to my hat now... - Jay Golub Mon, 29 Sep 2008 10:46:09 +0100