I was looking at the following list and I find it completely appalling that there are only three congressman with an (R) after their name. We used to have a delegation of over 40 representatives and now we have less than 30.
Representative Tim Bishop (D - 01)
Representative Steve Israel (D - 02)
Representative Pete King (R - 03)
Representative Carolyn McCarthy (D - 04)
Representative Gary Ackerman (D - 05)
Representative Gregory W. Meeks (D - 06)
Representative Joseph Crowley (D - 07)
Representative Jerrold Nadler (D - 08)
the list goes on...
Representative Anthony Weiner (D - 09)Representative Edolphus (Ed) Towns (D - 10)
Representative Yvette Clarke (D - 11)
Representative Nydia M. Velazquez (D - 12)
Representative Michael E. McMahon (D - 13)
Representative Carolyn B. Maloney (D - 14)
Representative Charles B. Rangel (D - 15)
Representative Jose E. Serrano (D - 16)
Representative Eliot L. Engel (D - 17)
Representative Nita M. Lowey (D - 18)
Representative John J. Hall (D - 19)
Representative Scott Murphy (D - 20)
Representative Paul D. Tonko (D - 21)
Representative Maurice D. Hinchey (D - 22)
Representative John M. McHugh (R - 23)
Representative Michael A. Arcuri (D - 24)
Representative Dan Maffei (D - 25)
Representative Chris Lee (R - 26)
Representative Brian Higgins (D - 27)
Representative Louise M. Slaughter (D - 28)
Representative Eric Massa (D - 29)
2010 should be a year where we take back some of these seats. We will need to argue that New York is losing representation in Washington because of policies implemented by Democrats. I don't have the time to review the history here, but I'd like to know which seats we can take back. Unfortunately, with redistricting, seats once carved for a Republican no longer exists. I do know we had 9 out of 29 a few years ago.
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written by Frank Ammendolea , June 30, 2009
OK, this is my opinion on what you have, broken down into what should be SAFE GOP, LEANS GOP, SAFE DEM and LEANS DEM. A Safe GOP is a district that is Republican friendly and should really only go Democrat under extraordinary circumstances (currently, we have safe GOP seats that are in Dem hands). Leans GOP means that it is either held by a Republican precariously or is held by a Dem but could go Republican. Same definitions in reverse for the Dems.
1. Tim Bishop (D) - Leans GOP
2. Steve Israel (D) - Leans Dem
3. Pete King (R) - Leans GOP
4. Carolyn McCarthy (D) - Leans Dem
5. Gary Ackerman (D) - Safe Dem
6. Greg Meeks (D) - Safe Dem
7. Joe Crowley (D) - Leans Dem
8. Jerry Nadler (D) - Safe Dem
9. Anthony Weiner (D) - Safe Dem
10. Ed Towns (D) - Safe Dem
11. Yvette Clark (D) - Safe Dem
12. Nydia Velasquez (D) - Safe Dem
13. Mike McMahon (D) - Safe GOP
14. Carolyn Maloney (D) - Safe Dem
15. Charles Rangel (D) - Safe Dem
16. Jose Serrano (D) - Safe Dem
17. Eliot Engel (D) - Safe Dem
18. Nita Lowey (D) - Leans Dem
19. John Hall (D) - Leans GOP
20. Scott Murphy (D) - Leans GOP
21. Paul Tonko (D) - Safe Dem
22. Maurice Hinchey (D) - Leans Dem
23. John McHugh (R) - Safe GOP
24. Mike Arcuri (D) - Leans Dem
25. Dan Maffei (D) - Leans GOP
26. Chris Lee (R) - Safe GOP
27. Brian Higgins (D) - Leans Dem
28. Louise Slaughter (D) - Safe Dem
29. Eric Massa (D) - Leans GOP
Out of these Dem held seats, we probably have the best chance of taking back NY-13 (Mike McMahon). The Staten Island district only flipped because of the Vito Fossella scandal. A well known local Republican councilman or state rep. could take this seat back, but they must do it in 2010. Another seat that can be taken is NY-20 (Scott Murphy). Republicans should have taken it in the special election in March 2009, but they nominated a bad candidate. A good candidate should beat Murphy in this GOP leaning district. I also think Republicans are primed to take NY-19 (John Hall). Assemblyman Greg Ball is a young and charismatic candidate. He could be the perfect candidate in this district. The last one I think we could take back next year is NY-29 (Eric Massa). The Republican he beat, Randy Kuhl, also had personal issues which did him in. A strong GOP candidate could take this Republican leaning seat.
If the GOP has an extraordinarily great year (circa 1994) in 2010 - and they run good candidates in these districts - they could have an outside shot at Tim Bishop (NY-1), Steve Israel (NY-2) and Carolyn McCarthy (NY-4), but it would take a GOP tidal wave to do it.
Most of the others are safely Dem, or have Dem incumbents that are relatively popular in the district, even if it might lean GOP.
written by Luke Vander Linden , June 30, 2009
I am admittedly biased, having moved into the 19th and gotten to know Greg Ball pretty well, but he's been out there hitting the pavement and working hard, starting 18+ months before the election. There's a Republican registration advantage and as the last commenter says, he's a perfect candidate for the district. Today is the deadline for fundraising reporting for this quarter -- the first he's making as an announced candidate -- so obviously it will be scrutinized. If you can, send a couple bucks his way ($19 for the 19th even!) so he can demonstrate his broad appeal: http://www.ball4ny.com/contribute.aspx
written by Cicero , June 30, 2009
You can thank the corrupt miscreant Vito Fossella for losing the 13th C.D.
This C.D., of which I live in, has a now popular Democrat congressman. McMahon will be in this seat for a long time.
written by Lisa , June 30, 2009
http://andrewsullivan.theatlan...-fami.html
Andrew Sullivan got it right about the disgraced former congressman from Staten Island and Bay Ridge.
written by Frank Ammendolea , June 30, 2009
Councilman Vincent Ignizio or State Senator Andrew Lanza would win this seat back if they chose to run. Unfortunately, no sitting state senator will be going for any higher office due to the state of our situation in Albany - we can't lose any more seats. So it would really need to be a Councilman like Ignizio or Oddo.
There is a more troubling problem in Staten Island right now, and that is the apparent rift between the Republican leadership and the Conservative leadership. Neither side can win without cross-endorsements. Staten Island is the city's most naturally conservative borough. If we can't get our act together there and hold the maximum number of seats possible - it's "GAME OVER."
We should have every council seat except McMahon's north shore seat. We should have every county office. We have State Senate and one Assembly seat, but we should also have Spencer-Hylan's assembly seat (formerly Matt Mirones'). Staten Island is also the only borough where we actually elect Republican judges!
I beg to differ Cicero, McMahon is very beatable. But I will agree that if the GOP doesn't do it in 2010, then he will end up sitting there for a long time.
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